… Between declining landline participation rates, the steady rise of cell phone use, the prevalence of cheap “robo polls”, the emergence of on-line polling, the “top-two” primary system in California that has resulted in candidates from the same party facing off in November, and a lot of noise due to the […] Read more »
Are the Polls Undercounting Latino Obama Backers?
If President Barack Obama loses big Eastern states like Florida and Ohio on November 6, Western swing states like Colorado and Nevada could help him hold on to the White House. Polls in Colorado and Nevada make the states look like anything but sure bets for the president, but there’s […] Read more »
The momentum behind a misleading narrative
… The notion that Romney still had “momentum” weeks after his early October gains in the polls has now been debunked by numerous commentators and academics. And while that pushback is increasingly reflected in campaign-trail accounts, it is worth taking a closer look at why coverage of Romney’s “momentum” went […] Read more »
Marketplace: How do you know if a poll is right?
Each week, Gallup’s editor-in-chief Frank Newport joins us to discuss how people are feeling about the news by looking at what Gallup’s polls have uncovered from our collective subconscious. But in the past week, Gallup’s polls themselves have been in the news. [cont.] Kai Ryssdal, Marketplace Read more »
The ‘momentum’ myth
Republicans have been pushing hard this week to convince people that Mitt Romney is wrapping up the presidential election. Since he’s not actually, well, leading, Romney partisans have relied on the idea that Romney has momentum: Even if he isn’t actually ahead yet, he is certain to take a commanding […] Read more »
In Polls, Romney’s Momentum Seems to Have Stopped
… Mr. Romney clearly gained ground in the polls in the week or two after the Denver debate, putting himself in a much stronger overall position in the race. However, it seems that he is no longer doing so. [cont.] Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight (NYT) Read more »