As the election approaches, it’s not only candidates who face a reckoning. Pollsters, too, confront a moment of truth. The close election could leave many calling the wrong winner. … It’s not just the election. Among pollsters, there’s fear that changing technology (mainly cellphones) and growing public unwillingness to do […] Read more »
Here’s Johnny—the Campaign Oracle
In mid-September 1980, following the two presidential conventions, Ronald Reagan trailed President Jimmy Carter in national polls, 44% to 40%. At the time, I was head writer for Johnny Carson’s “Tonight Show.” … We got NBC’s props department to dust off an old applause meter. … When [Johnny] said, “Now how many […] Read more »
Looking at the polls & state of the campaign in the homestretch
CNN’s State of the Union: Bill McInturff, Anna Greenberg and Mike Duffy speak with Candy Crowley. Read more »
Close race leaves pollsters little margin for error
… Polling isn’t as simple as asking 500 people a few questions and adding up their answers. It’s a subtle blend of science and social alchemy that attempts to predict the future: who will show up at the polls and which buttons they will push. “It’s not mysterious, or not […] Read more »
George Gallup and the Mystery of Polls
The polling organization Gallup created a stir earlier this month when it announced that, going forward, it would refine its polling methodology, emphasizing the preferences of voters considered most likely to vote. The immediate consequence of the shift—the obliteration of a five-point advantage for Obama—has raised the hackles of pundits […] Read more »
Swing state polling still makes electoral college arithmetic hard for Romney
There are 11 days left in the presidential election, and the picture is static. Mitt Romney and President Obama remain knotted in the national vote. Obama, however, maintains an edge in the all-important electoral college. The lead is small, but seemingly solid. [cont.] Harry Enten, The Guardian Read more »