… This week, our partnership with the data news site FiveThirtyEight continues with another edition of the Breaking News Consumer’s Handbook. This time: Election Polls Edition. CONT. On The Media Read more »
Polling & democracy: An uneasy relationship
Knowing your good polls from your bad is essential, especially in an election year. But what if the problem of polling is about more than separating best and worst practices? What if the whole premise is, and always has been, flawed? Jill Lepore explored these and other questions in her […] Read more »
Trump’s Biggest Obstacle
Last week’s Crystal Ball repeated its refrain that Donald Trump is very unlikely to get the Republican presidential nomination. However, it issued the caveat that “[i]t would be easier to make our argument if we could explain precisely how and by whom the real estate tycoon will be dethroned.” Who […] Read more »
Trump Boom Or Trump Bubble?
… Understanding the dynamics of the modern media environment is an important skill for a candidate, and it’s a skill that Trump has mastered. But it’s also important to understand the effects that media coverage can have on the campaign and on the polls. By one measure we’ll get to […] Read more »
How Trump Could Win, and Why He Probably Won’t
… Mr. Trump has emerged as a true factional candidate — much more like Howard Dean or Pat Buchanan than Herman Cain, or other candidates who have surged to the top of the polls only to collapse. But it’s still too soon to say Mr. Trump is the front-runner for […] Read more »
Polls Suggest Trump Will Win Between 8 Percent And 64 Percent Of The Vote
In 2007, I woke up every morning — alarm set with a 1980s or ’90s TV show theme song — opened my computer and searched the term “poll” on Google. I did this through the spring, summer, fall and winter. And when I did, I saw the same person leading […] Read more »