… Mr. Trump has emerged as a true factional candidate — much more like Howard Dean or Pat Buchanan than Herman Cain, or other candidates who have surged to the top of the polls only to collapse.
But it’s still too soon to say Mr. Trump is the front-runner for the nomination. He has a high floor but a low ceiling, and although he has weathered many controversies, the toughest days are yet to come. …
The notion that Mr. Trump should be considered a strong front-runner based on current polls is understandable, but inconsistent with recent history. In nearly every election cycle, there are candidates who lead national polls and sometimes even win states, but don’t come close to winning the nomination. CONT.
Nate Cohn, New York Times