At a time when trust in public polling has eroded after high-profile failures in elections across the country and around the globe, people in Iowa still have faith that one woman can accurately measure where things stand in next year’s volatile caucuses. That woman, J. Ann Selzer, has predicted election […] Read more »
Polls offer a snapshot, but not always reliable predictions
Early polling often doesn’t reflect who goes on to become president (think Howard Dean or Newt Gingrich). These days pollsters acknowledge they are wrestling with a sea change in polling methods that’s making it harder to collect a sample opinion of Americans. Judy Woodruff reports as part of a collaboration […] Read more »
The Polls May Be Underestimating Trump’s Support
Donald Trump’s persistent lead in the GOP presidential-preference polls has been a great source of confusion for the chattering classes. But Trump is actually just the latest manifestation of a more global trend: Data suggests the appeal of anti-immigrant policies to working-class voters is much deeper than most American elites […] Read more »
Republicans Face an Unusually Uncertain Race Before First States Vote
In this Republican presidential campaign, mid-December is not as late as it used to be. Stand by for changes. Donald J. Trump has consistently been atop opinion polls for months, but several factors have injected greater uncertainty than normal at this stage of the campaign. CONT. John Harwood, New York […] Read more »
When Will Iowa Republicans Make Up Their Minds?
… A key question I often get from the press these days is: When will Iowans finally make up their minds? Based on the astonishing number of candidates still under consideration in the Republican field, my answer is: Late, very late. History shows that even in an normal year, Iowans […] Read more »
Trump factor fuels debate about value of ‘horse race’ polls in election cycle
… In recent days, debate has raged most fiercely around Donald Trump. One group of pundits point to exaggerated polling as the explanation for his temporarily dominant lead in the Republican primary race. Other commentators suggest this ignores genuine momentum behind his campaign that has lasted months longer than anyone […] Read more »