Polling of Republicans in the early-voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina has reached unprecedented levels, fueled by the number of candidates in the hunt and an obsession with the horse race rather than a meaningful debate over policy, a new Boston Globe study says. … So what […] Read more »
Are Primary Polls Finally Predictive? No, but This Is When the Fun Starts
You have undoubtedly heard that primary polls aren’t necessarily very predictive far from an election. With just a month to go until the Iowa caucuses, I’m writing to tell you that … it’s still true. Yes, even with that little time left until Iowa, the first contest of the 2016 […] Read more »
Most Pollsters Say Their Reputations Have Worsened
No votes have been cast yet in the 2016 election, but there may already be one set of losers in the campaign: pollsters’ reputations. And that’s according to the pollsters themselves. CONT. Carl Bialik, FiveThirtyEight Read more »
Will UK pollsters redeem themselves in 2016?
… In the event, the final 2015 election campaign polls from nine polling companies resulted in three giving Labour leads, three offering a dead heat and three suggesting Conservative leads – two registering one-point leads and the other a lead of three points – far below the eventual seven-point gap. […] Read more »
Number of GOP polls jumps 90 percent in 4 years
Flip on the TV news: Polls. Open a newspaper: Polls. Surf the Internet: Polls, polls, more polls. America’s obsession with political surveys has reached record heights in this presidential campaign season, with polls of early states, polls of the nation, and even a “poll of polls” that determines who gets […] Read more »
Harry’s Guide To 2016 Election Polls
WNYC’s “On The Media” has a great series called the “Breaking News Consumer’s Handbook,” and as part of our ongoing partnership with them, we put together a handy list of rules for interpreting election polls. Listen to the whole episode, or just to my dulcet tones: [audio] But I also […] Read more »