General election opinion poll failure down to not reaching Tory voters

The long-awaited postmortem into what wrong with the opinion polls in last year’s general election is published on Tuesday, and it points the finger at the pollsters’ failure to reach enough Conservative voters. Patrick Sturgis, a professor of research methodology at Southampton University, who has headed a team of nine […] Read more »

Everybody Loves a Winner. So What Happens if Trump Loses?

… Research shows that expectations of success are strongly associated with which candidates people support in primaries, especially among less informed voters. In this way, Mr. Trump’s initial success may have helped attract more support, creating a positive feedback dynamic that helped fuel his monthslong ascent in the polls. At […] Read more »