The tremendous buildup to the Iowa caucuses is about to culminate in real voting. We’re less than a week away. But anything can still happen … there’s still plenty of time … right? Sort of. CONT. Harry Enten, FiveThirtyEight Read more »
Our Insane Addiction to Polls
… I’d say that we’re in a period of polling bloat, but bloat is too wan a word. Where polling and the media’s attention to it are concerned, we’re gorging ourselves into a state of morbid obesity. CONT. Frank Bruni, New York Times Read more »
Voters vote, non-voters don’t. Why is this so hard for pollsters?
Pollsters aren’t very sophisticated when deciding who is and isn’t going to vote on Election Day. You’d think they would have research-backed strategies for assessing who is likely to vote. They don’t. Pollsters usually just ask respondents if they plan to vote and take respondents at their word. … But […] Read more »
Has there been a Bernie Sanders blackout?
In our ongoing collaboration with FiveThirtyEight.com, we’ve been considering whether media coverage drives polls or whether polls (and general interest) drive media coverage. According to Democratic presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders, it’s the former; the Vermont senator has long accused the media of “blacking out” his campaign, dumbing down the national […] Read more »
Polling Matters: The BPC Polling Inquiry and are we underestimating Donald Trump?
On this week’s podcast Keiran discusses the initial BPC Polling Inquiry findings with Mike Smithson. … Keiran and Mike also discuss the U.S. presidential race. Keiran argues we are underestimating Trump and Mike explains why he is no longer backing Ted Cruz in the betting markets. CONT. Polling Matters Read more »
8th Annual Dubious Polling Awards: 2015’s Worst in Media Polling
10. “The Left Hand Doesn’t Know What the Right Hand Is Doing” Award … 9 . “Leading the Witness” Award … 8. “The Pollyanna” Award … CONT. David W. Moore, iMediaEthics Read more »