… In the final part of a series examining the role of opinion polling in British politics, David Cowling asks if polling will be more reliable in future and if the industry can restore its reputation in the wake of its errors at the last general election. CONT. BBC Radio […] Read more »
The Enduring Value of Public Polls
In a primary season where the only conclusion that makes sense is that very little has made sense. Rigorous, scientific public polls have provided a very useful road map. As fellow pollster Gary Langer has commented: although public polls, the good and the bad, are often mixed together like champagne, […] Read more »
The Best Pollster In Iowa Just Released Its Final Survey — How Accurate Has It Been?
The final Des Moines Register poll was just released, showing Donald Trump leading the Republican field in Iowa with 28 percent, Ted Cruz with 23 percent and Marco Rubio with 15 percent. Hillary Clinton was ahead of Bernie Sanders, 45 percent to 42 percent, on the Democratic side. The political […] Read more »
Why This Is the Iowa Poll That Everyone Was Waiting For
Perhaps no political poll is more eagerly anticipated and receives more attention than the last Des Moines Register poll before the Iowa caucuses. … The hype ahead of the survey is easy to understand. Conducted by Ann Selzer, it has one of the most impressive track records in polling — […] Read more »
Ann Selzer Is The Best Pollster In Politics
… When Homer wrote of his hero Odysseus, he was “that godlike man.” The D.C. poets use the same laudatory epithet-style when they sing of Selzer; she is uniformly “the great” or “most respected” or, as I saw on a book jacket recently while walking through the Des Moines airport, […] Read more »
Learning from poll autopsies
As polls pour out of early primary states, it’s worth examining just how complex and fragile those instruments are. Recently we’ve been treated to three polling autopsies that illustrate potential pitfalls: two about Britain’s elections and one regarding our own 2014 midterms. CONT. Mark Mellman (Mellman Group), The Hill Read more »