Monday night was a thriller, no doubt about it. Of course, the outcome of the Republican caucuses was not identical to the final Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll published Saturday night. We had the top four candidates identified, all right. But we had Donald Trump with the win over […] Read more »
Iowa Teaches Pollsters To Poll Until The End
Most Iowa polls showed Donald Trump winning the state’s Republican caucuses. He didn’t. Some Iowa polls showed Hillary Clinton winning Iowa easily. She didn’t. It’s notoriously hard to poll Iowa, but what can pollsters learn from Monday night’s results to improve their work over the next few months — and […] Read more »
After polling shock, Ann Selzer happy to be the ‘silver standard’ in Iowa
The 2016 Iowa caucuses were more polled, more frequently, than any previous contest. Starting in November, there were multiple weekly looks at the Iowa electorate, many of them earning bright red chyrons on cable news. But there was only one Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics poll — and only one Ann […] Read more »
So how badly did the Iowa polls do?
Donald Trump loves to talk about them, most candidates pretend to ignore them, and lots of voters get sick of them, but polls have a ubiquitous role in American politics. How’d they do in Iowa? On the Democratic side, not bad. On the GOP side, worse. CONT. David Lauter, Los […] Read more »
Polls Were Way Off on Donald Trump. Here’s What It Means.
Donald Trump was at the top of each of the last 10 polls in Iowa, but his lead failed to hold up on caucus night Monday. In the end, his seven-point lead in polling averages amounted to a three-point loss to Ted Cruz. That 10-point swing was enough to make […] Read more »
How pollsters got Iowa wrong
Donald Trump led almost all of the polls leading up to Monday night’s Iowa caucuses – just ask him. … So why did the public polls – including the gold-standard Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll – miss Cruz’s victory? There are some clues buried in the election results and […] Read more »