Polling in the New Hampshire presidential primary accurately forecast victories by Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Bernie Sanders, a reversal from earlier this month when surveys failed to predict voters’ behavior in the Iowa caucuses. … The accurate calls were especially significant because New Hampshire’s primary is a famously tough […] Read more »
Opinion Polls Matter—Even When They’re Wrong
Given that opinion polls failed to predict the result of the Republican caucus in Iowa, it might be wise not to place too much stress on what they’re saying about the New Hampshire primaries tomorrow night. We can’t simply ignore the polls, though. Often, they turn out be right, or […] Read more »
Why U.S. Latinos Are Difficult to Poll
It is not easy to accurately poll any population, but Latinos in the U.S. appear to pose specific challenges. “There is an art and a science to polling in Latino communities,” says Lourdes Torres, the director of special projects at Univision, a the Spanish-language network, which is also known for […] Read more »
Why you should be skeptical about polls
Famed Iowa researcher J. Ann Selzer explains how viewers should interpret political polls and why polls are becoming harder and harder to conduct. CONT. CNN Read more »
Iowa: Late Vote Swing Led to Cruz Win
A significant number of Republican caucus-goers changed their minds over the final few days of the Iowa campaign – enough to account for the difference between pre-election polling and the actual result. The Monmouth University Poll re-contacted a panel of likely voters who took part in its final Iowa poll […] Read more »
The Necessary Imperfection of Early Primary Polling
… For those shocked by the GOP results, take heart: Iowa is notoriously fickle, and not even top pollsters firmly predicted a win for Trump or Cruz, despite assumptions to the contrary. And it’d be wise to steel yourself for more unpredictability in the minutes, hours, and days leading up […] Read more »