… Research shows that expectations of success are strongly associated with which candidates people support in primaries, especially among less informed voters. In this way, Mr. Trump’s initial success may have helped attract more support, creating a positive feedback dynamic that helped fuel his monthslong ascent in the polls. At this point, his lead in the polls has almost become a rationale for his campaign. …
But if those expectations of success change as a result of, say, a surprising primary or caucus defeat, Mr. Trump’s supporters may shift their support to another candidate. CONT.
Brendan Nyhan (Dartmouth), New York Times
Recent polls: GOP presidential preference