We launched our forecasts for the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primaries today. For much more detail about how this all works, you can read here. But our premise is that, given the challenges inherent in predicting the primaries, we’ll be publishing two models instead of pretending we’ve found a […] Read more »
The predictive value of GOP presidential polls
… Two Nates (Silver and Cohn) have come out with essays arguing that we still can’t extract much predictive value from opinion polls. For the detailed kind of analysis they like, this may be true. However, a slightly different approach has suggestive implications about who is likely to be the […] Read more »
A Psephologist’s Lament (And, You Can Look It Up)
Poll Watcher Season is upon us big time. And, with it comes both the good and the bad. Each election cycle resurrects some oldies about the failings of public polls and typically ushers in a few new critiques. Expect 2016 to follow the same pattern. In an attempt to shed […] Read more »
Why the ‘likely voter’ is the holy grail of polling
What are the chances you will vote in the 2016 general election? Did you vote in the 2012 presidential election? These are the questions pollsters often use to identify “likely voters,” perhaps the most ubiquitous and least-understood phrase in election news — and for two big reasons: CONT. Scott Clement, […] Read more »
Why Polls Have Been Wrong Recently
The polling industry has been hit hard by high-profile misfires in recent years. … But exactly why the polls err often remains a mystery. Potential sources for error abound: The initial samples could be biased, the likely-voter models may not reflect the actual electorate, or voters could make last-minute decisions that […] Read more »
Can Likely Voter Models Be Improved?
… This study examines various methods of determining who is a likely voter. It then compares the relative effectiveness of each approach in describing the electorate and measuring the division of the vote between parties in the 2014 U.S. House of Representatives elections. Pollsters would like to have a crystal […] Read more »