… There is also strong evidence that most traditional public opinion surveys inadvertently hide a segment of Trump’s supporters. Many voters are reluctant to admit to a live interviewer that they back a candidate who has adopted such divisive positions. In matchups between Trump and Hillary Clinton, Trump does much […] Read more »
Defense of Polling, but Not-Defense of Models for Primaries
Someone forwarded me this article by Ray Hennessy: The Problem With Polling, Surveys and Opinion Is That People Fib. The piece so (1) riddled with factual errors (2) over-the-top “business lessons” I thought it was a joke. My friend convinced me that the author was serious, so I am going […] Read more »
Inside the Poll Numbers: How Close Are Trump and Clinton?
J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., discusses Quinnipiac University polls in the swing states of Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio that show a tight race between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump on “With All Due Respect.” Bloomberg Politics Read more »
YouGov’s accurate election polls show our new methods are working
A year ago the polls got the general election wrong. This week YouGov was the only company to carry out polls for all three of the London, Scottish and Welsh votes. Following both our own internal investigation and the British Polling Council enquiry, we have changed our sampling so as […] Read more »
The Four Things I Learned From The Donald Trump Primary
There are a lot of mea culpas floating around from people who thought it would snow in July — in Miami — before Donald Trump became the Republican nominee for president. … I wrote a pre-emptive mea culpa back in December, when it was already clear that my initial skepticism […] Read more »
No, Donald Trump’s Win Does Not Prove That Data Journalism Is ‘Wrong’
The results of the presidential primary race are in, and the New York Times’ media columnist has declared a loser: journalism. “Wrong, wrong, wrong,” writes Jim Rutenberg. “To the very end, we got it wrong.” … By “we,” however, it soon becomes clear that Rutenberg does not mean journalists like […] Read more »