… So let’s look at Trump and Clinton’s “strongly favorable” and “strongly unfavorable” ratings among general election voters. These are people who don’t just like or dislike the candidates, they really like or dislike them. No past candidate comes close to Clinton, and especially Trump, in terms of engendering strong […] Read more »
Obama thinks he hasn’t gotten credit for a growing economy. He’s right.
… I’ve previously noted that, despite the prevailing narrative about “voter anger,” consumer sentiment is actually quite favorable — comparable to what it was in 1983, when it seems obvious that an incumbent party could run successfully on a record of economic growth. But here’s the problem for Obama: Unlike […] Read more »
Nate Silver Defends FiveThirtyEight’s Missed Call on Donald Trump Nomination
Nate Silver, founder and head stat-master of ESPN’s data-driven FiveThirtyEight, explained how the site failed to predict Donald Trump would win the Republican Party presidential nomination — saying it resulted from a reliance on using history as a guide. “I’m glad we didn’t predict something as crazy as a Trump […] Read more »
The Republican Horse Race Is Over, and Journalism Lost
Wrong, wrong, wrong — to the very end, we got it wrong. … You can continue to blame all the wrong calls this year on new challenges in telephone polling when so many Americans — especially the young — do not have landlines and are therefore hard to track down. […] Read more »
Poll Modeling Says: No, Bernie Sanders Is Not More Electable
Bernie Sanders, facing a virtually insurmountable climb to win the Democratic nomination through pledged delegates, has turned to trying to convince superdelegates that he is more electable. Sanders is doing this by pointing at current polling which does indeed show him performing stronger against Donald Trump or the other Republicans […] Read more »
Will it be Clinton or Trump in November? Here’s what’s wrong with most predictions.
Almost certainly, after the July nominating conventions, the Democratic presidential nominee will be heavily favored to win the general election. (The “almost” leaves room for a dark horse candidate to win a contested convention.) That’s despite the fact that if you relied on ordinary forecasting — “fundamental models,” built on […] Read more »