As the costs and nonresponse rates of traditional, probability-based surveys seem to grow each year, the advantages of online surveys are obvious – they are fast and cheap, and the technology is pervasive. There is, however, one fundamental problem: There is no comprehensive sampling frame for the internet, no way […] Read more »
Gender Considerations Cause Voters to Favor Democratic Candidates
Although Americans routinely tell pollsters they’re ready to elect a woman, it remains an open question whether gender is playing a role in shaping candidate preferences in the 2016 contest. The most recent national survey of registered voters from Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind finds evidence that gender does indeed affect […] Read more »
How Google Trends Predicted Donald Trump’s Rise, and What It Means For Polling
What are the most important issues in a political campaign? As Donald Trump has risen to the top of the Republican primary field, pundits have speculated especially on what motivates his supporters, and what it may mean for the future of American politics. Pollsters are certainly interested in this as […] Read more »
How exit polls work
… When polls closed in New York on Tuesday, exit poll estimates showed Bernie Sanders trailing Hillary Clinton by only four points. That eventually got adjusted, but it was the most recent example of a poll showing a number that ended up being way off the final result. To figure […] Read more »
The Mythical Swing Voter
Most surveys conducted during the 2012 U.S. presidential campaign showed large swings in support for the Democratic and Republican candidates, especially before and after the first presidential debate. … We conclude that vote swings in 2012 were mostly sample artifacts and that real swings were quite small. While this account […] Read more »
Two Americas?
It’s often said that Democrats and Republicans inhabit different countries. At least, they seem to see the same country quite differently. They certainly feel differently about it. CONT. Mark Mellman (Mellman Group), The Hill Read more »