Polling is seductive. (Polling, not pollsters.) You ask questions, get answers and turn those answers into numbers. Some people put decimal points next to those numbers to make you think they’re dealing with physics. Everyone just assumes that the answers are meaningful. Often, they aren’t. CONT. Mark Mellman (Mellman Group), […] Read more »
Trust the polls: Heidi Heitkamp is in trouble
… Democrats need a net gain of 2 seats to take back the Senate in November. While Democrats hold small leads in the currently Republican-held seats in Arizona and Nevada, a loss in North Dakota would leave them with a net gain of only 1 seat. … Perhaps because of […] Read more »
What Nate Silver’s Worried About
On this week’s episode of my podcast, I Have to Ask, I spoke to Nate Silver, the election forecaster and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com. Below is an edited excerpt from the show. In it, we discuss how the fight over Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination might impact November’s election, the ups […] Read more »
Poll Hub: The Impact of Brett Kavanaugh’s Confirmation Hearings on the 2018 Midterm Elections
The NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll has been closely tracking Americans’ opinions of the testimonies of Judge Brett Kavanaugh and Dr. Christine Blasey Ford. But, beyond the sexual harassment allegations and the FBI investigation, are there implications for the midterm elections? CONT. Marist Poll Read more »
What We’ve Learned About Undecided Voters Heading Into the Midterms
We don’t tend to talk much about undecided voters in political analysis. Sometimes, you can gloss over them altogether by referring to a candidate’s polling lead, such as “Dems plus-5.” But undecided voters can decide elections; in 2016 they played a key role in swinging toward Mr. Trump in the […] Read more »
America’s political pollsters could be missing the X factor in the 2018 elections — “hidden voters”
… The question that keeps emerging is who is not on pollsters’ 2018 radar. That matters greatly because between now and November’s vote, there will be a tsunami of horse race coverage delivered in authoritative tones. However, pollsters will tell you that their analyses are more vaporous; that they are […] Read more »