What are we to make of modern polling? There are a lot of negative takes that one commonly encounters. Many people are skeptical that polls accurately measure public sentiment, pointing to their failure to predict Donald Trump’s victory in 2016. … Anthony Salvanto, the director of elections and surveys at […] Read more »
Comparing Survey Sampling Strategies: Random-Digit Dial vs. Voter Files
A new telephone survey experiment finds that, despite major structural differences, an opinion poll drawn from a commercial voter file can produce results similar to those from a sample based on random-digit-dialing (RDD). The study intentionally pushed the boundaries of current polling practices by employing a voter file and a […] Read more »
Unfortunately for Trump, approval ratings are based on more than unemployment rates
To hear President Trump tell it, his approval rating should be far higher than it is based on the economy alone. He has taken to referring to the economy as the best in history, slowly sliding that self-assigned praise into his regular rhetorical rotation. … And to hear Trump tell […] Read more »
Election 2018: Nevada, Minnesota, and Wisconsin
Nevada, Minnesota, and Wisconsin – three states that will be critical during this year’s midterm elections. On this week’s Poll Hub, the team goes behind the numbers of the latest NBC News/Marist Polls of Nevada, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Among which groups is enthusiasm for the midterm elections strongest? Where do […] Read more »
President Trump: ‘I believe in polls …’
President Trump, speaking in Erie, Pennsylvania, Oct. 10, 2018: TRUMP: “I believe in polls — only the ones that have us up, because they’re the only honest ones. Other than that they’re the fake news polls. Fake news! [boos] Just like their reporting is dishonest, their polls are dishonest.” pic.twitter.com/GGqqwbhSQi […] Read more »
University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy and AP-NORC Center Launch New Poll
The University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy and The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research are collaborating on a new series of surveys designed to inform the public debate and contribute to academic studies. … Harris Public Policy faculty, NORC researchers, and AP editors and reporters will […] Read more »