With less than 60 days before the first votes are counted in Iowa, four candidates are in the mix or leading in at least one of the four early-voting states. Combined with the lack of a dominant frontunner nationally, Democrats can start asking a question that’s maybe not so far-fetched: […] Read more »
Nate Silver: ‘Do I buy that Bernie has a shot at the nomination? Definitely.’
FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver looks into Bernie Sanders’ chances of winning the Democratic nomination. This Week, ABC News Read more »
Trump has weathered impeachment better than Clinton
… During the course of the Democrats’ impeachment inquiry into Trump, analysts such as myself have been making the few historical comparisons we can to judge the current situation. In these, Trump usually comes out looking poorly compared to Bill Clinton, the last president to be impeached. Clinton’s job approval […] Read more »
The Performance of the Polls in the 2019 UK General Election
After being widely criticised for their performance in the 2015 and 2017 general elections, the polls have proven more accurate in the 2019 election than in any contest since 2005. As the table shows, on average the final polls underestimated the Conservative vote by just 1.4 points and overestimated Labour’s […] Read more »
No, the polls aren’t wrong — but you have to know what to look for
A good political pollster’s job should be easy enough to understand: draw the best probability sample; ask balanced, fair-worded questions; be able to offer the best informed interpretation; and find the vectors that point to trends that could emerge. But if the client or pundits are looking for the final […] Read more »
What did the UK elections teach us about 2020? Trust the polls
You’re going to hear about a lot of supposed lessons that can be applied to the 2020 US elections from the 2019 United Kingdom elections. Maybe you think Republican President Donald Trump has reason to smile after his friend, Conservative Prime Minister Boris Johnson, won a big mandate. Maybe you […] Read more »