Harry Truman registered a 22% job approval rating in a Feb. 9-14, 1952, Gallup poll. This occurred late in his second term, as the U.S. was dealing with an economic slowdown, a prolonged military engagement in the Korean War, labor strife and federal government corruption. CONT. Jeffrey M. Jones, Gallup Read more »
The Right Frame: Did broadcasters show ‘systemic bias’ by focusing on seats?
Writing at LSE Blogs, Prof Pippa Norris (Harvard) and Prof Patrick Dunleavy (LSE) say the BBC coverage — based on the broadcasters’ exit poll — established “a dominant narrative…with no counter-notes of any kind”. The article’s central claim that vote share information only came after 5am is likely to be […] Read more »
The Exit Poll, BBC Election Night and systemic media bias
The main lines of British political culture over the next four and a half years were constituted by the election of 12 December, and especially by how the broadcasters, especially the BBC, represented the results overnight. … The centrepiece of election night programming across all broadcast channels was the single […] Read more »
FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: Holiday Mailbag Edition
In this special holiday installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew spends a whole episode answering listener questions. The topics range from the best way to winnow a primary debate stage, to who would win if the podcast team went toe-to-toe in a battle royale. FiveThirtyEight Read more »
Is it true that “Most polls misrepresent the Democratic electorate” and that this “skews the results”?
Someone pointed me to this post in the Monkey Cage, a political science blog that I participate in. The post was about non-representativeness of political polls, and it had one good point and one bad point. Overall I think the claims in the post were overstated. CONT. Andrew Gelman (Columbia […] Read more »
Trump is gaining ground heading into 2020
… Public opinion on Trump has been remarkably stable throughout his presidency. His approval rating has mostly been stuck in the high 30s to low 40s, and he’s consistently trailed his most likely Democratic opponent (Biden) in the polls by high single to low double digits. But as we close […] Read more »