Don’t put too much stock in all those New Year’s predictions you’re hearing and seeing about American politics in 2020. Anyone saying they know what will happen is probably just trying to get our attention. And probably succeeding. We’ve all fallen for headlines and clickbait proclaiming foreknowledge of events. We […] Read more »
Biggest Political Moments Of 2019. Key Questions For 2020.
As the year comes to close, the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast team looks back on the most significant political moments of 2019 and previews the most pressing questions of 2020. They also discuss the Democrats’ debate over health care and the events that led the House to impeach President Trump. FiveThirtyEight Read more »
Why we don’t really know who is ahead in Iowa right now
Poll of the week: There’s no poll of the week because there’s been a dearth of polling for the all-important Iowa Democratic caucuses. … Iowa’s a little more than a month away, and we don’t really know who is ahead, let alone who is going to win. Our lack of […] Read more »
Blacked Out: Policies prohibiting the release of pre-election polls near Election Day
On this week’s episode of our podcast, Poll Hub, traditionally, pollsters do not release pre-election polls on Election Day, but that could be changing. We discuss why and assess the rules other countries have in place prohibiting the release of such polls around the time voters head to the polls. […] Read more »
A historic gender gap is possible in 2020
If President Donald Trump loses in 2020, it will be at the hands of women. While the chance of a woman winning the Democratic presidential nomination for 2020 aren’t too high at this very moment, female voters seem keen on kicking Trump to the curb. An examination of recent CNN […] Read more »
Why Trump isn’t getting credit from voters for good economic news
In the past two weeks, good economic news has buoyed the Trump administration, providing a welcome distraction from his impeachment. Job growth in November exceeded expectations — 266,000 new jobs, unemployment down to 3.5 percent — prompting immediate speculation by commentators about the implications for President Trump’s reelection. Although not […] Read more »