We are in rarely charted territory, but not for the most obvious reason. With the COVID-19 pandemic having upended every facet of our society, regular public polling data is now being used as both a measure of public opinion and a lagging indicator of economic and epidemiological trends. But amid […] Read more »
Is Trump Slipping In The Polls Because Of COVID-19?
A slew of recent polling in swing states shows President Trump losing ground to presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew asks whether the narrative of Trump’s handling of the coronavirus crisis has already been cemented, and what Trump could do to […] Read more »
Tweets of Note
While 2020 may very well defy historical patterns, in elections over the past five decades an incumbent president's approval rating at ~200 days out has been a remarkably strong predictor of his ultimate vote share. Trump's current rating puts him in Carter & GHW Bush territory. pic.twitter.com/pyvZA1q6St — Patrick Egan […] Read more »
Trump’s likeability deficit could cost him in 2020
President Donald Trump has a likeability problem. Four years ago, Trump won election with the lowest favorability for a major party presidential candidate in the polling era. He did so because he won the overwhelming plurality of voters who both disliked Hillary Clinton, the second least liked candidate of all […] Read more »
Nervous Republicans See Trump Sinking, and Taking Senate With Him
President Trump’s erratic handling of the coronavirus outbreak, the worsening economy and a cascade of ominous public and private polling have Republicans increasingly nervous that they are at risk of losing the presidency and the Senate if Mr. Trump does not put the nation on a radically improved course. … […] Read more »
Biden Leads Trump in Key States. But Hillary Clinton Led by More.
If the presidential election were held today, polls in crucial swing states like Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania suggest that Joseph R. Biden Jr. would be in position for a narrow victory. The disquieting news for Democrats is that at the same point in 2016, Hillary Clinton was in a better […] Read more »