President Trump endured plenty of ups and down during his first three years in office. Just not when it came to polling. The gap between his highest and lowest job-approval ratings is the narrowest of any first-term president in the history of modern polling (since 1945). The levels of extreme […] Read more »
The six states at the center of the battleground map six months from Election Day
… While the coronavirus has tossed the mechanics of politicking in flux for the foreseeable future, leaders in both parties and officials with President Donald Trump and Joe Biden’s campaigns are surveying a relatively stable political battlefield that will be concentrated largely in just about a half dozen states: the […] Read more »
How Trump has broken the polls
… The polls clearly show that Biden is ahead and by a larger margin than Hillary Clinton was on the eve of the 2016 election. You might think that would make people believe that Biden is more likely to win, even if it were far from a certainty. Yet, the […] Read more »
Democrats are slight favorites for Senate control
… To gain Senate control from Republicans in November’s elections, Democrats will need a net gain of three seats (if former Vice President Joe Biden holds onto his lead over President Donald Trump and claims victory) or four seats (if Trump wins). An early look at the data finds that […] Read more »
Big Government? For Now, Most Americans Say Bring It On
The White House and some Republican governors are angling toward a cautious reopening of the economy, while G.O.P. leaders in Congress have tried to pump the brakes on future federal stimulus spending. But polling suggests the political winds may be flying against them. The American public remains broadly wary of […] Read more »
Preview of Coming Distractions
… It is fair to conclude that with numbers as bad as the ones real live voters gave the 2016 Republican nominee, the only reason Trump won an electoral college victory and the White House was because he was running against Clinton. The cold, hard truth is that if Trump […] Read more »