President Donald Trump’s continuing erosion among well-educated voters looms as perhaps the most imposing headwind to Republican hopes of recapturing the House of Representatives in November — or even avoiding further losses in the chamber. … In recent weeks, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and other party groups have publicly […] Read more »
Trump faces a now historical disadvantage
… Polls taken around Independence Day in an election year are actually pretty highly correlated with the November results in incumbent contests. That means Trump is in a lot of trouble. Take a look at the 13 incumbent elections dating all the way back to 1940. Usually going all the […] Read more »
Can Trump Pull Off an Upset Like Harry Truman’s in 1948?
When your presidential candidate is not doing well, it’s not uncommon to look around for historical analogies in which a similarly downtrodden candidate has made a dramatic comeback to win. … So observers looking about for an example Trump might yet emulate are going back 68 years, to Harry Truman’s […] Read more »
Republican internal polling signals a Democratic rout
Whenever I hear an operative complain about public polling, I have just one thing to say: Put up or shut up. Release your own numbers that show the race in a different place than the public polling, or let the public polling stand. This is especially true in House races, […] Read more »
Biden builds lead as Trump goes from trailing to flailing
As recently as one month ago, Donald Trump was merely losing. Now he is flailing, trudging into the Independence Day weekend at the nadir of his presidency, trailing by double digits in recent polls and in danger of dragging the Republican Senate down with him. But there are still four […] Read more »
Poll Hub: Now and Later
On this week’s episode of our podcast, Poll Hub, we explain the latest results from our America Now: National Outlook Index. We assess how Americans’ opinions about their health and economic conditions have and have not changed. Plus, we introduce our baseline measurements of Americans’ feelings toward society and government […] Read more »