Over the last few weeks, my political conversations have started to change. They now often lead off with a question like “Can President Trump turn this election around?” or “What would it take for him to win a second term?” That’s quite a shift from just a few months ago, […] Read more »
As cases rise, Trump hits historic low on handling coronavirus
President Donald Trump’s numbers on coronavirus are getting worse. The latest ABC News/Ipsos poll out Friday shows that just 33% approve of his handling of the pandemic, while 67% disapprove. Of the about 350 polls on the subject, this is the highest percentage of Americans who disapprove of Trump’s handling […] Read more »
Our Polling Trauma
The brain learns in different ways. Mastering French verbs requires repetition. A single distressing experience, however, can impart a lasting lesson in moments; a car crash survivor, for instance, might come away with a deep fear of riding in cars. A lesson like that is hard to unlearn, even if […] Read more »
Trump’s handling of the coronavirus is the only election issue that matters
President Donald Trump keeps trying to change the subject. His Twitter feed and his rallies reveal an incumbent who probably doesn’t want this election to be about the one issue dominating all of our lives right now: the coronavirus. But make no mistake: Unless something changes dramatically, whichever candidate is […] Read more »
How Trump Could Improve His Electoral Odds
In this week’s FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the team considers various strategies that President Trump and Republicans could use to improve their electoral prospects this fall — ranging from a new running mate to a vacancy on the U.S. Supreme Court. FiveThirtyEight Read more »
A simple forecast suggests a Democratic sweep in 2020
The covid-19-driven economic collapse, upheaval over racial politics in the United States and President Trump’s consistently low popularity ratings have given Democrats an opening to win the presidency and both houses of Congress in 2020. Our prediction, based on economic indicators and presidential approval ratings, provides a simple, albeit early, […] Read more »