On this week’s episode of Poll Hub, Americans are apprehensive about the state of the nation. We break down the latest Marist Poll America Now: National Outlook Index and discuss the indicators driving the mood of Americans. Then, it’s back to school season. But, school districts across the nation are […] Read more »
New polls suggest Trump’s position has stabilized
There’s little doubt that former Vice President Joe Biden has the upperhand against President Donald Trump at this point. Biden has led in poll after poll nationally and in almost every poll in the core six battleground states (Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin). Yet, while Biden has […] Read more »
Key things to know about election polling in the United States
A robust public polling industry is a marker of a free society. It’s a testament to the ability of organizations outside the government to gather and publish information about the well-being of the public and citizens’ views on major issues. In nations without robust polling, the head of government can […] Read more »
Biden Is Polling Better Than Clinton At Her Peak
Election Day is now just three months away, and the overall trajectory of the race hasn’t changed much recently: Joe Biden continues to hold a sizable lead over President Trump. Biden is now up by 8 percentage points in FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average, and he has an advantage of 5 […] Read more »
Poll-Based Election Forecasts Will Always Struggle With Uncertainty
Key Points• We have no idea how much uncertainty exists in pre-election polls. That leads to very complex poll-based forecast models.• The general public lacks the expertise necessary to appropriately interpret win probabilities from those complex models.• Some research shows that overly certain forecasts might depress turnout, which could matter […] Read more »
It’s the Pandemic, Stupid! A Simplified Model for Forecasting the 2020 Presidential Election
Key Points• Two factors that historically have been helpful in forecasting presidential elections — the power of incumbency and the state of the economy — may be less useful in this year’s election, both because of long-term changes in American politics and the current public health crisis.• A forecasting model […] Read more »