Political Conventions, Polls, and “Moneyball 2020”

With the Covid-19 pandemic, the conventions will look vastly different from previous years. In this episode, Julian Zelizer and Sam Wang discuss the run-up to the Republican and Democratic National Conventions. They look at how a virtual convention might affect election coverage, voter enthusiasm, and rising political talent. Later in […] Read more »

Convention Bumps Revisited

It’s hard to say what we should expect in terms of polling gains from the COVID-era, remote nominating conventions over the next few weeks. On one hand, the well-choreographed convention floor “show” will be missing, potentially robbing the both Biden and Trump of whatever benefits there are from the spectacle […] Read more »

Another electoral college-popular vote split? It’s possible

New CBS News/YouGov polls from Pennsylvania and Wisconsin seem to tell a familiar story. Former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by six points among likely voters in both states (49% to 43% in Pennsylvania and 48% to 42% in Wisconsin). Biden’s advantages in those states are nothing […] Read more »

Shy Trump Voters Depressing His Poll Numbers?

… Political pendulums can swing back forth quickly and so can polls. But one issue that has surfaced in the news media after some state polling failures in 2016 is the claim of the “shy Trump voter.” This is the assertion by some pundits and politicians that polls undercount Trump’s […] Read more »