… The belief that Americans aren’t getting the real story about Mr. Trump’s chances for re-election has taken hold among many of his supporters. For Trump loyalists, it is an appealing story, and one with some validity: The news media, which largely failed to anticipate Mr. Trump’s victory in 2016, […] Read more »
A big sign Trump is a weak candidate
It’s often been said that President Donald Trump is “underperforming the fundamentals”. Some believe Trump’s doing worse than the average Republican president would be doing in the polls under similar circumstances. It’s difficult to prove that, however. But at least one key indicator suggests Trump is, indeed, doing worse than […] Read more »
Poll Hub: Let the Games Begin!
On this week’s episode of Poll Hub, Joe Biden leads Donald Trump by 11 points nationally among registered voters. What does Trump need to do to close the gap? Is his base of support still strong? And, how do the candidates fare on the issues driving the contest? CONT. Marist […] Read more »
A Steady Race Where Movement Is Driven by “Bystanders”
… As I wrote back in September of that year, every time a candidate was in the media spotlight, their poll numbers suffered. “When it [the spotlight] hits them,” I wrote, “it exposes their flaws instead of highlighting their strengths. Their poll numbers and their favorability numbers sink…The more it […] Read more »
It’s Way Too Soon To Count Trump Out
Joe Biden currently has a robust lead in polls. If the election were held today, he might even win in a landslide, carrying not only traditional swing states such as Florida and Pennsylvania but potentially adding new states such as Georgia and Texas to the Democratic coalition. But the election […] Read more »
The Veepstakes Are Almost Over
After missing multiple self-imposed deadlines, presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden is expected to announce his running mate this week. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses the conflict within the Democratic Party over who that pick should be and why the campaign has floated disparate and […] Read more »