Almost every analysis of the 2020 election says the same thing: Joe Biden has an advantage over President Trump, but data analysts such as me won’t go so far as to predict the ultimate winner outright. Public opinion could change! Trump could outperform his polls! The warnings we repeat are […] Read more »
18 year old election forecaster on the need to engage young voters
Niles Edward Francis, contributor to election forecasting site, Decision Desk HQ, and an 18 year old from Georgia, joins MSNBC’s Craig Melvin to talk about how he got involved in politics and election forecasting at such a young age, what needs to be done to engage young voters this November, […] Read more »
The likely voter sham
New York Times data journalist extraordinaire, Nate Cohn, used Twitter last week to announce the Times was “switching to likely voters.” That is, their polls would now reflect the opinions of voters likely to turnout in November. The Times is hardly alone, so it’s a propitious moment to trot out […] Read more »
2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Landscape Tightens Some, But Biden Is Still Ahead
It looks, for now, like President Trump has bounced back a little after bottoming out. The president was at a low point against former Vice President Joe Biden, but in the past month, even though Biden still has an edge, the landscape has tightened some, according to the latest NPR […] Read more »
Why Pennsylvania Could Decide The 2020 Election
Right now, Pennsylvania looks like the single most important state of the 2020 election. According to FiveThirtyEight’s presidential forecast, Pennsylvania is by far the likeliest state to provide either President Trump or Joe Biden with the decisive vote in the Electoral College: It has a 31 percent chance of being […] Read more »
A strong day for Biden in the battlegrounds
This is around the time when convention bounces start to diminish. It’s still too soon to say whether President Trump’s bounce will fade or endure, but Tuesday was arguably Joe Biden’s best day of state polls since the Republican National Convention. CONT. Nate Cohn, New York Times The OPINION TODAY email […] Read more »