Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden’s campaign is turning tradition on his head. Biden is ahead in the polls, despite losing ground relative to Hillary Clinton’s 2016 showing among traditionally Democratic Black and Hispanic voters. One big reason Biden has maintained his advantage over President Donald Trump is his unusually strong […] Read more »
How A Supreme Court Vacancy Will Shape The Election
In this emergency installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s passing and how the political fight around the new vacancy on the court might unfold. FiveThirtyEight The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s […] Read more »
Polls Have Shown Voters Prefer Biden to Pick Next Justice
In 2016 and 2018, many analysts concluded that Supreme Court politics helped Republicans by helping to energize or consolidate conservative voters. True or not, it certainly wasn’t obvious ahead of time which side would benefit from a court vacancy, and the same can be said today, in the aftermath of […] Read more »
Economic Perceptions and the Election
The economy has been a major factor in determining the outcome of presidential elections throughout U.S. history. That will clearly continue to be the case in this 2020 presidential election cycle, although I certainly think there are unusual factors challenging the economy for salience in voters’ minds this year. Additionally, […] Read more »
2020 Election Scenario Explorer
The Economist election model has Biden at 86%. But what happens if Trump wins Florida? How about if Biden wins Arizona? Which states are most pivotal? By clicking on different states, you can explore how the odds change under different scenarios. CONT. Dan Fernholz & Ric Fernholz Read more »
The Trial-Heat and Convention Bump Forecasts of the 2020 Presidential Election
Key Points• The Trial-Heat and Convention Bump Forecasting Models have an excellent record for accurate predictions of the presidential elections going back to 1992.• Forecasting models depend on applying electoral history to the current election, but 2020 is historically abnormal (at least, in the period since 1948).• The greatest challenge […] Read more »