… A team of distinguished researchers led by David Rothschild of Microsoft and Tobias Konitzer of Predictwise analyzed the relationship between survey responses to media usage questions used by pollsters and hard behavioral data about what people actually do, gleaned from their electronic devices. Just as voter files offer hard […] Read more »
When noted journalists bashed political polls as nothing more than ‘a fragmentary snapshot’ of a moment in time
Legendary New York City columnist Jimmy Breslin, right, ready to do shoe-leather journalistic research in a bar, said preelection polls were “monstrous frauds.” Michael Brennan/Getty Images W. Joseph Campbell, American University School of Communication Poll-bashing – the aggressive, even extreme lambasting of pollsters and their work – used to be […] Read more »
What to Expect in the 2020 Elections
Political prognostication, by Bruce Mehlman of Mehlman Castagnetti Rosen & Thomas CONT. — pdf Read more »
Rating Changes: Maine Senate Moves to Leans Democratic
Key Points• The passing of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg introduces an explosive new issue into the 2020 contests, although it may not fundamentally alter the race.• Based on trends in public polling, and with a potential assist from Maine’s ranked-choice voting system, we’re moving that state’s critical Senate […] Read more »
The first polling tidbits after the death of Justice Ginsburg
It will be a while until we have a good understanding of public opinion in the aftermath of the death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg. Most high-quality polls are conducted over three or more days, so we’ll have to wait to see many full poll results. Even then, […] Read more »
Why Biden and Trump are fighting over one electoral vote in Nebraska
Some states, it seems, get all the attention in presidential elections. You probably know most of them by now: Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, etc. But beyond the big prizes lie the smallest prizes in the competitive races: Maine’s 2nd Congressional District (one electoral vote), Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District (one electoral […] Read more »