… Let’s start with the poll that has every poll junkie buzzing tonight: the vaunted Des Moines Register/Ann Selzer poll of Iowa. If it’s not President Trump’s best poll of the cycle, I’m not sure what is: Mr. Trump led by seven points, 48 percent to 41 percent, in a […] Read more »
Trump Can Still Win, But The Polls Would Have To Be Off By Way More Than In 2016
To borrow from Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman, “I’ve seen enough.” No, I don’t know who’s going to win the election. According to our forecast, President Trump still has a chance at a second term: a 10 percent chance, to be more specific. But — even though we’ll still get […] Read more »
Poll Hub: The End of the Trail
On this week’s episode of Poll Hub, Election Day is just five days away, and we have new NBC News/Marist Polls of two of the most competitive swing state races around! Where does the contest stand in Florida and North Carolina? Then, Ron Brownstein, Senior Political Analyst for CNN and […] Read more »
Final NPR Electoral Map: Biden Has The Edge, But Trump Retains Narrow Path
The final NPR Electoral College map analysis shows Democrat Joe Biden going into Election Day with the clear edge, while President Trump has a narrow but not impossible path through the states key to winning the presidency. Among states leaning or likely to go in a particular candidate’s direction, Biden […] Read more »
What we can trust 2020 election polls to tell us
As Election Day draws closer, Americans are being inundated with polls about the state of the presidential race. And understandably, many are wondering whether polls can be trusted after Donald Trump’s surprise victory in 2016. A better question to ask may be what, exactly, are we trusting polls to do? […] Read more »
‘People Are Going To Be Shocked’: Return of the ‘Shy’ Trump Voter?
… In 2016, months of national polls confidently showed Hillary Clinton ahead, and set many Americans up for a shock on Election Night, when the Electoral College tilted decisively in Trump’s favor. Two pollsters who weren’t blindsided by this are Arie Kapteyn and Robert Cahaly. … This year, both men […] Read more »