A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News survey has found no evidence, so far, of the kind of late surge toward President Trump among undecided voters that helped produce his unexpected wins in 2016. When pollsters asked themselves how so many missed signs that Mr. Trump would win the 2016 election, […] Read more »
We Have A Lot Of New Polls But There’s Little Sign Of The Presidential Race Tightening
After a surprisingly sluggish weekend for polling, the floodgates have opened, with a mix of high-quality polls, low-quality polls and pretty much everything in between. And although there are some outliers in both directions, they tell a fairly consistent story, overall: A steady race nationally, perhaps with some gains for […] Read more »
Biden’s Path to 270 Widens, Trump’s Path Narrows, as Texas Moves to Toss Up
Less than a week out from Election Day and President Donald Trump is playing catch-up. In 2016, he won 30 states (and Maine’s 2nd Congressional District) and their 306 electoral votes. Today, just 20 states, worth 125 electoral votes, are safely in his column. Former Vice President Joe Biden is […] Read more »
The Election’s Big Twist: The Racial Gap Is Shrinking
American politicians, including presidents, have often sought to exploit the nation’s racial and ethnic divides for political gain. During the Trump era, voters are not responding as expected. The gap in presidential vote preference between white and nonwhite voters has shrunk by a surprising 16 percentage points since 2016, according […] Read more »
The polls could be wrong. But that may help Biden, not just Trump.
As Election Day approaches and President Donald Trump continues to trail Joe Biden by high single digits both nationally and in key states, their respective bases are buzzing with either hope or dread that “the polls could be wrong again.” In truth, public opinion polls are imperfect instruments, and there’s […] Read more »
Final Forecast: Results from Two Methods of Predicting the 2020 Presidential Election
Key Points• A presidential election forecasting model based on the president’s approval rating, first published at the Crystal Ball in early August, continues to show Joe Biden as a favorite in next week’s presidential election.• An average of current state-level polling produces a very similar Electoral College projection.• These forecasting […] Read more »