If President Trump pulls off a come-from-behind victory on Nov. 3, it’s likely to run through Pennsylvania — one of the three Midwestern states he won by less than one percentage point in 2016, and arguably the one that’s still within range for him. Joseph R. Biden Jr., the Democratic […] Read more »
9 days to go: Biden’s lead over Trump is holding, while Clinton’s was collapsing at this point
The clock is running out on President Donald Trump’s chances for a comeback. He continues to trail former Vice President Joe Biden nationally and in the key swing states with just nine days to go. But perhaps most worrisome for the President: Trump’s clearly behind his 2016 pace. By this […] Read more »
Beyond the Needle: Probability experts assess 2020 race
The one thing most likely to conjure nightmares of the 2016 election night for opponents of President Donald Trump is the Needle. A graphic on The New York Times’ website, the Needle measured in real time the probability of victory for Trump or Hillary Clinton as votes were counted. Its […] Read more »
How Trump is dragging down fellow Republicans
President Donald Trump’s struggles in the polls have been well documented. He entered the final debate down about 10 points to former Vice President Joe Biden and trailed in key swing states. Less discussed is that Trump has hurt Republicans’ chances of holding onto Senate control and pretty much eliminated […] Read more »
Defining Seniors as an Age Group
Older Americans are reliable, high-turnout voters and thus are of significant importance in elections. It is not surprising, then, to see news headlines proclaiming “Biden and Trump Key In On Seniors in Campaign’s Final Weeks” or “Trump’s Coronavirus Remarks Weigh on Minds of Senior Voters.” But exactly who are “seniors”? […] Read more »
Suddenly, Nearly Anything Is Possible in the Senate Races
What had shaped up to be a fairly mild, predictable Senate cycle has become one of the hairiest in memory. To see why, let’s start with the stakes: The policy consequences of Republicans losing only a seat or two and holding onto a sliver of a majority is dramatically different […] Read more »