With just under two weeks until Election Day and more than 43 million ballots already cast, time is running out for President Trump to turn around his political fortunes. More daunting for the president is the fact that few events have made a meaningful or long-lasting impact on his standing […] Read more »
What Republican internal polling can actually tell us
Former Vice President Joe Biden has held a steadfast lead in high quality nonpartisan public polling. Still, some conservatives and President Donald Trump claim the polls are off. Trump himself has said he is up in key swing states. There’s no reason to believe Trump. An examination of publicly released […] Read more »
Where The Presidential Race Stands Before The Last Debate
… As President Trump and Joe Biden prepare to take the stage tonight for the final presidential debate, Trump has just a 12 in 100 chance of winning the presidency, while Biden has an 88 in 100 chance, according to our presidential forecast. And according to national polls, Biden leads […] Read more »
Why Trump’s road to 270 is narrow
President Donald Trump faces a large deficit in the polls right now. If the election were held today, he’d very likely lose. But if Trump were to pull off a surprising win, how would he do it? A look at the electoral map reveals just how narrow Trump’s possible paths […] Read more »
With Tension Draining Out of the Presidential Race, Will GOP Voters Stay Home?
The drama and uncertainty that seems to have leaked out of the presidential race has found its way into the fight for control of the U.S. Senate. If you are into either electoral politics or congressional policy, the range of possible outcomes in next month’s elections is dizzying. At one […] Read more »
The Senate: Iowa to Leans Democratic
Key Points• We are moving the Iowa Senate race from Toss-up to Leans Democratic. Iowa remains a Toss-up for president.• Iowa may have replaced North Carolina as the race likeliest to decide Senate control, although North Carolina remains a very viable Democratic target despite Cal Cunningham’s (D) troubles.• We have […] Read more »