… With the Trump presidency coming to a close, historians and Americans alike are starting to put Trump in historical perspective. How they think of him now versus in a few years may change. Still, it’s very clear that historians and a lot of voters believe history will remember Trump […] Read more »
What We Know and The Hard Work Ahead
We at Hart Research Associates take pride in the role we have played in advancing progressive candidates and causes over the past 49 years. This includes helping Democrats win the majority in the U.S. House of Representatives in 2018 and, through our work for Priorities USA and other organizations, helping […] Read more »
Infrastructure Action Should Be a No-Brainer
… I’ve been writing about the American public’s views on infrastructure for years now. The main point: Doing something about infrastructure should be a no-brainer. This is one of relatively few policy areas for which there is strong public support from all Americans, regardless of political identity. As I said […] Read more »
Beware the analyses
The Hill and I are taking an end-of-year break. While we’re gone, you’ll no doubt be devouring endless analyses of the 2020 election. Be careful. Much of the data being analyzed, and the tools being employed, are laden with problems and pitfalls. Start with the exit polls. Some critics of […] Read more »
The 2020 polling paradox: Accurate results in some key states but big misses in others
Polls have faced strident criticism after President Trump outperformed pre-election surveys nationally and in key states. Now that nearly all votes have been counted, a clearer picture of poll accuracy has emerged, showing that they struggled much more in certain states, while they were much more accurate in others. … […] Read more »
COVID made polls too pro-Biden
Polling error in 2020, while within the historical range of polling error, has caused a lot of heartburn among Democratic strategists, pollsters, and data analysts. We’re still at work understanding the 2020 election’s polling misses, but one theory that looks accurate is that the COVID-19 pandemic caused polls to overstate […] Read more »