… Native Americans make up less than 2% of the U.S. population and often are listed in datasets as “other” or denoted with an asterisk. Even when surveyed, the results can be considered statistically insignificant because the sample size isn’t large enough or the margin of error is too great […] Read more »
Biden’s already more popular than Trump’s ever been
A new Gallup poll finds that President-elect Joe Biden has a 55% favorable rating and a 41% unfavorable rating. The same poll gives President Donald Trump a 42% favorable rating and a 57% unfavorable rating. … The 2020 election was, like almost every election involving an incumbent, mostly about voters’ […] Read more »
Trump-Biden 2020: The polls were off, but they’re not crystal balls and aren’t meant to be.
There are plenty of headlines proclaiming disaster for the polling field. In the last two election cycles, preelection polls have underestimated electoral support for President Donald Trump. In 2016, the problem seemed to be isolated to polls in specific states. In 2020, although vote totals are not certified, it’s clear […] Read more »
Why the polls weren’t as wrong as you think
Voters who decided to back a presidential candidate at the last minute and an unprecedented, pandemic-induced surge of mail-in and absentee ballots across the country confounded pollsters trying to measure public opinion in the days leading up to November’s elections. But as the slow vote tallies continue to amass, while […] Read more »
The undecided verdict on 2020 polling
… Many of the poll-blamers ignore the fact that undecided voters are, well, undecided. As this column has noted before, pollsters are not mind-readers and polls are not crystal balls that can see the future. If someone is asked who they plan to support and they say they haven’t decided, […] Read more »
Despite the 2020 election results, you can still trust polling. Mostly.
… In 2020, polls appear to have overconfidently predicted that Joe Biden would handily defeat incumbent President Trump. While researchers are sorting out the final numbers, some observers are arguing that polling has outlived its usefulness. … But while election polling definitely has problems that need to be studied, some […] Read more »