There is no political saying more trite — or more accurate — than James Carville’s famous aphorism from the 1992 campaign “It’s the economy, stupid.” Electoral success and economic performance are intrinsically tied together. The party in power is usually rewarded for a strong economy and punished for a weak […] Read more »
Why Biden is flailing
President Joe Biden’s popularity is at the lowest point of his administration. He’s averaging about a 43% approval rating, with recently released polls from Gallup (42%) and Grinnell College (37%) coming in even lower. While the causes of Biden’s decline are numerous (e.g. declining trust of his handling of the […] Read more »
The Pessimistic Electorate Behind Biden’s Approval Ratings
What’s dragging down President Biden’s approval rating? Everyone. And everything. Mr. Biden’s approval ratings have declined on nearly every issue and among nearly every demographic group in national surveys over the last two months, as the promise of a return to normalcy has given way to rising inflation, a simmering […] Read more »
If Democrats win in Virginia, they should thank Donald Trump
President Joe Biden is not a popular politician at this point in his presidency. This is even true in Virginia, a state he won by 10 points last year, where his net approval rating (approval – disapproval) is under water. Yet in Virginia, and even nationally on the generic congressional […] Read more »
Pollsters: The Discoverers and Guardians of Public Opinion
This episode focuses on the art and science of measuring public opinion. We discuss the challenges pollsters face when trying to predict how public opinion may change over time, review both the innovative and time-tested methods of polling and discover which recent polls have revealed the most surprising data. Our […] Read more »
The abuse of drug polling
PhRMA, the trade association of prescription drug companies, wrongly reinterpreted a poll showing overwhelming support for government negotiating drug prices, to suggest the survey found the opposite. The problem is not just with PhRMA, however, it’s part of a much wider misunderstanding about interpreting poll data. Sometimes responses should be […] Read more »