As the Democratic electorate has bifurcated along economic and racial lines, intraparty tension is rising. One manifestation of this tension is the eruption of competition over access to high performance magnet schools in heavily Democratic metropolitan areas like Washington and New York. … Virtually every prospective Democratic presidential candidate has […] Read more »
There Are Two Gender Gaps—And the Gap Between Them Is Growing
The gender gap, produced by the relative pro-Democratic lean of women and pro-Republican lean of men in party affiliation and voting habits, has been a fact of American electoral life since the 1980s. … But gender differences in the composition of the parties become greater as we move up the […] Read more »
Internal GOP Poll: ‘We’ve Lost the Messaging Battle’ on Tax Cuts
A survey commissioned by the Republican National Committee has led the party to a glum conclusion regarding President Donald Trump’s signature legislative achievement: Voters overwhelmingly believe his tax overhaul helps the wealthy instead of average Americans. By a 2-to-1 margin — 61 percent to 30 percent — respondents said the […] Read more »
Can A Democrat Really Win A Senate Race In Tennessee? Or Mississippi?!?!
Republicans don’t have a lot of exposure in the Senate this year — but they’re doing what they can to help Democrats make the most of it. The GOP entered this election cycle with only eight of their own seats up for grabs. Republican incumbents retired in three of those […] Read more »
How the Republicans Fell for Trump’s Overconfidence Game
The topic never pops up in statistical analyses or pundit roundtables on cable TV, but one of the most underappreciated factors shaping politics is overconfidence. … All this brings us to the most laughable manifestation of overconfidence in the 2018 campaign. It comes courtesy of an internal Republican National Committee […] Read more »
Brett Kavanaugh Could Make the Midterms a Landmark Election for Women
Anita Hill’s testimony in Congress triggered the first “Year of the Woman” in 1992, after she accused the Republican Supreme Court nominee Clarence Thomas of sexually harassing her. … Long before the clinical-psychology professor Christine Blasey Ford publicly accused Kavanaugh of a high-school assault, a backlash against Donald Trump had […] Read more »