Suddenly the political world seems to realize that the Senate is in play, concluding that the expected Democratic wave, which has made a turnover in the House very likely, is now starting to swamp the Senate as well. … The reality is that there are a lot of very close […] Read more »
What Constitutes a Wave Election?
Is 2018 going to be a wave election? The better question is: “What constitutes a wave election?” … Despite district and state polls showing tight races, most Democrats and media pundits seem to base their optimism on the notion that winning a wave election is all about the base and […] Read more »
For Red-State Democrats, Accusation Against Kavanaugh Scrambles Midterm Calculus
The sexual assault accusation against Judge Brett M. Kavanaugh hasn’t just upended what was expected to be his relatively easy Senate confirmation to the Supreme Court. The allegation has also scrambled the political calculations for 10 Democratic senators running for re-election in states won by President Trump, particularly three moderate […] Read more »
Texas Democrats need a big turnout to win. Polls suggest they won’t get it.
It’s become an old cliché that elections “come down to turnout.” While that may be exaggerated in most places, it’s definitely not in Texas. Democrats need voters who don’t traditionally vote to cast a ballot this year in order to to win, and it’s not clear that they will in […] Read more »
Republicans Opposing Trump on Trade Face Election Quandary
As President Trump again ratchets up trade tensions with China and Canada, he has the strong backing of Republican voters. But he risks putting his party’s congressional candidates — many of whom are more supportive of free trade — in a bind. Top Republicans in Congress love Mr. Trump’s tax […] Read more »
Internal RNC Poll: Complacent Trump Voters May Cost GOP Control of Congress
A private survey conducted for the Republican National Committee and obtained by Bloomberg Businessweek contains alarming news for Republicans hoping to hold on to control of Congress in November: Most Trump supporters don’t believe there’s a threat that Democrats will win back the House. President Trump’s boasts that a “red […] Read more »