The polls are a bit of a mess right now, but the sources of disagreement seem a little clearer today. A big polling duel might be shaping up for November: Gallup and Rasmussen v. World. [cont.] Nate Cohn, New Republic Read more »
Persuadable Voters
Slightly more than a fifth of registered voters remain persuadable in their preferences for president, little changed from before the party conventions – and a continued sign that the 2012 election retains the potential to break open in either candidate’s direction. … In a regression analysis, holding demographic measures constant, […] Read more »
How to Solve the Swing-State Puzzle
… Using my FiveThirtyEight model, I’ve determined — through about 25,000 simulations that I run each day — which states could put either candidate over the top. … Which states, then, are the most strategically important? The answer exists along a spectrum rather than in absolutes. Ten states could play […] Read more »
PBS NewsHour: Pew Poll Suggests Big Turnout
A new Pew poll suggests Americans are paying attention to 2012 campaigns, and that Election Day will see high numbers of voters cast their ballots. Gwen Ifill talks to Pew Research Center’s Andy Kohut and the Huffington Post’s Mark Blumenthal for what the latest polls say about the mood of […] Read more »
Obama’s Lead Looks Stronger in Polls That Include Cellphones
… Although there are exceptions on either side, like the Gallup national tracking poll, for the most part Mr. Obama seems to be getting stronger results in polls that use live interviewers and that include cellphones in their samples — enough to suggest that he has a clear advantage in […] Read more »
Obama has edge over Romney in three battleground states
President Barack Obama has the edge over Republican Mitt Romney in three potentially decisive states in the presidential election. Obama tops Romney by seven percentage points among likely voters in both Ohio (49-42 percent) and Virginia (50-43 percent). In Florida, the president holds a five-point edge (49-44 percent). … The […] Read more »