President Obama has opened a solid lead over Mitt Romney by largely reassembling the “coalition of the ascendant” that powered the Democrat to his landmark 2008 victory, the latest Allstate/National Journal Heartland Monitor Poll has found. The survey found Obama leading Romney by 50 percent to 43 percent among likely […] Read more »
Obama’s Uptick
Reality is often more complicated than conventional wisdom would have you believe, a point underscored in the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. The survey showed President Obama with a 6-point lead among all registered voters, a 7-point edge among registered voters in 12 swing states, and a 5-point advantage […] Read more »
The A-Little-Bit-Less Undecided
… If you believe the conventional wisdom about elections, the pivotal moments in presidential campaigns come in the last 50 days or so. The only problem with this claim is that by the time Ronald Reagan chortled and said, “There you go again” to Jimmy Carter, or Michael Dukakis hopped […] Read more »
Obama ahead in Colorado, Iowa and Wisconsin
President Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney in Colorado, Iowa and Wisconsin, reaching the key 50 percent support threshold in all three battlegrounds, according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls of these states. In both Colorado and Wisconsin, Obama is ahead by 5 points among likely voters (including those […] Read more »
His Original Sin
… Romney’s biggest general-election problem is that he did not believe he could beat a GOP primary field with no competitor more formidable than Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, or Newt Gingrich without tacking sharply right on key issues. Romney repeatedly took policy positions that minimized his risks during the spring but […] Read more »
Post-convention polling gives definitive view: Obama has consolidated his lead
Before the conventions, I wrote that “If Obama still leads by 1.5 points once the convention dust has settled, it’s difficult for me to envisage how Obama will lose.” We are now past the conventions and President Obama still leads. Any individual national poll is confusing, but the aggregate is […] Read more »