Buoyed by early voting in his favor, Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney by five points in the pivotal state of Ohio, according to a new TIME poll. Counting both Ohioans who say they will head to the polls on November 6, and those who have already cast a ballot, Obama […] Read more »
As goes February, so goes the nation
Back in February, when the Signal predicted that President Barack Obama will win re-election with 303 electoral votes, we wrote that “while campaigns and candidates matter, they don’t matter all that much. Despite the varying quality and positions of the campaigns and candidates over the last 10 presidential elections, variables […] Read more »
Pew: Mitt Romney, Barack Obama on Foreign Policy
In the final presidential debate in Boca Raton, Fla., on Oct. 23, Barack Obama and Mitt Romney faced off on foreign policy. Bob Schieffer of CBS News moderated the debate and formulated the questions. What does the public at large think about the issues addressed? Here’s what our surveys have […] Read more »
Maybe Not a ‘Must Win,’ but Ohio Is Surely a Vital Prize
The supposition that Ohio is the most important state in presidential elections is not always true. … But this year, all the clichés about Ohio are true. In our most recent simulations, Ohio has provided the decisive vote in the Electoral College about 50 percent of the time. [cont.] Nate […] Read more »
Gender Gap in Election Fueled More by Men Than Women
Despite the great attention paid to the importance of the women’s vote in the 2012 election, there has been a larger change in men’s than in women’s preferences compared with 2008. … Obama has lost support among both gender groups compared with 2008, when he won the popular vote by […] Read more »
Romney Ekes Out Bragging Rights; For Obama, Approval Slips Below 50%
Mitt Romney eked out bragging rights in the latest ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll, claiming 49 percent support among likely voters vs. Barack Obama’s 48 percent – Romney’s first numerical edge, however slight, since before the party conventions. … Underscoring Obama’s challenges two weeks before Election Day, his job approval […] Read more »