Back in February, when the Signal predicted that President Barack Obama will win re-election with 303 electoral votes, we wrote that “while campaigns and candidates matter, they don’t matter all that much. Despite the varying quality and positions of the campaigns and candidates over the last 10 presidential elections, variables beyond their immediate control describe the outcome very well.”
We won’t know if our model of predicting elections is any good for another two weeks. We do know that it has held remarkably steady. [cont.]
David Rothschild & Chris Wilson, The Signal, Yahoo! News