… Four years ago, Barack Obama built the largest grassroots organization in the history of American politics. After the election, he never stopped building, and the current operation, six years in the making, makes 2008 look like “amateur ball,” in the words of Obama’s national field director Jeremy Bird. Republicans […] Read more »
Expect the Unexpected
… Today, the national polls show a truly deadlocked race, and the nine battleground states each appear to rest within about three points on either side of a tie. With diverse battlegrounds, there are plenty of moving pieces that could potentially nudge a state one or two percentage points in […] Read more »
Where we are in the race
… Speculation about a split between the popular and electoral votes is wildly overblown — while not impossible, the probability of such a split is quite low. Nonetheless, while the reasoning and the math are arcane, the conclusion is that over the last four cycles, the Electoral College has exhibited […] Read more »
Will 2012 see the most divided American electorate ever?
… Four years ago, then-candidate Obama said he could heal the divisions of our country. Those who know anything about voting pattern demographics were suspicious that Obama could accomplish this goal. With this year’s election close at hand, we can now see if the president has come closer to reaching his […] Read more »
The Virtues and Vices of Election Prediction Markets
Tuesday featured what, on the surface, would seem to be a fairly neutral day of polling. … At the political betting market Intrade, however, traders seemed to have a much stronger opinion about the day’s news. Mr. Romney’s stock, which can be read as a forecast of the chance that […] Read more »
Romney Takes Lead on Economy; White Men are the Movers
Mitt Romney has advanced to a slight lead over Barack Obama in trust to handle the economy, and Obama has slipped beneath a clear majority in who better understands the public’s economic problems – two key metrics of the 2012 presidential race. These trends in the latest ABC News/Washington Post […] Read more »