The election is nearly six months from now. And yes, it’s risky to place too much weight on any one poll. But the just-released Quinnipiac survey of three key swing states—Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio—challenges complacent assumptions and suggests that the election will be closely contested. CONT. William A. Galston, Brookings […] Read more »
Clinton Starts with a Decisive Advantage
The warnings about jumping to conclusions about November are widespread. I’ve heard that it’s early in the presidential race and that we underestimated Donald Trump last time so we should be careful now. I’ve also heard that Trump’s strength with working-class whites could change the electoral map, giving him a […] Read more »
Inside the Poll Numbers: How Close Are Trump and Clinton?
J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., discusses Quinnipiac University polls in the swing states of Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio that show a tight race between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump on “With All Due Respect.” Bloomberg Politics Read more »
Wrapping up a Wild Ride: A 2016 Exit Poll Review
What was that all about? “That” is the wild ride of the 2016 primary season, and ABC News exit polls conducted across the primaries provide illuminating answers. For Republicans, it was about demand for an outsider fueled by profound disenchantment with economic and political conditions. For the Democrats, a deep […] Read more »
Can Trump re-draw the electoral map? There’s one big problem.
With presidential candidates Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton seemingly headed for a general-election showdown, a lot of people want to talk about the electoral map and, in particular, whether Trump could “re-draw” it or even win it. But any conversation about the map has to start with this key fact: […] Read more »
No, the Battleground States Are Not a Terrific Fit for Donald Trump
Polls from Quinnipiac University this morning showed very close races between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, Florida and Ohio. (He leads her by four percentage points in Ohio.) Nate Cohn, The Upshot’s politics analyst, and Toni Monkovic, an Upshot editor, discussed the polls and other battleground states in […] Read more »