With presidential candidates Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton seemingly headed for a general-election showdown, a lot of people want to talk about the electoral map and, in particular, whether Trump could “re-draw” it or even win it.
But any conversation about the map has to start with this key fact: Over time, there are smaller year-to-year swings in the states. This places a big constraint on any presidential candidate’s ability to “re-draw” it. CONT.
John Sides (GWU) & Andrew Gelman (Columbia), The Monkey Cage