The warnings about jumping to conclusions about November are widespread.
I’ve heard that it’s early in the presidential race and that we underestimated Donald Trump last time so we should be careful now. I’ve also heard that Trump’s strength with working-class whites could change the electoral map, giving him a path to an Electoral College win.
The purpose of these and similar warnings is to convey the impression that the 2016 presidential contest should be regarded as competitive. This is utter baloney. CONT.
Stuart Rothenberg, Roll Call