Polls Show Trump Winning in a Clinton Showdown, and They May Be Right

For months, Republican rivals to Donald Trump were proclaiming that nominating him would be an electoral disaster, given the assumption he could not win a general election. Pundits have been saying the same thing, noting that Trump’s historically high unfavorable ratings, especially among women and Hispanics, would doom his general […] Read more »

Polls show Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in a virtual tie. Should Democrats be worried?

Democrats hoped this presidential election would be a cakewalk. In their eyes, the presumptive Republican nominee, Donald Trump, spent most of the spring alienating big chunks of the electorate, beginning with women. Meanwhile, the presumptive Democratic candidate, Hillary Clinton, has run a careful, well-funded, well-honed campaign. What could go wrong? […] Read more »

Sanders Isn’t Doing Well With True Independents

A lot has been made of Bernie Sanders’s appeal with independent voters during the Democratic presidential primary. He has won people who identify as independents in state after state, while Hillary Clinton has won people who identify as Democrats. Some Sanders backers have argued that this will translate to the […] Read more »

In a Trump-Clinton match-up, racial prejudice makes a striking difference

Attitudes about racial and ethnic groups helped fuel Donald Trump’s apparent victory in the Republican presidential primary. … Voting in presidential general elections are consistently shaped by factors, most notably party identification and the incumbent president’s job performance, that could potentially overwhelm other considerations. We can gain some early insights […] Read more »