In contrast to Republicans, whose convention had a random-seeming parade of speakers each night, Democrats mostly hit their marks and stuck to the traditional convention script. … In short, the Democrats appeared to have a conventionally effective convention, and perhaps a very effective convention (which is not to say they […] Read more »
Why Our Model Is Bullish On Trump, For Now
Further polling since the Republican National Convention has tended to confirm our impressions from earlier this week: Donald Trump has almost certainly gotten a convention bounce, and has moved into an extremely close race with Hillary Clinton. … Trump’s position in our polls-plus forecast, which adjusts for convention bounces, is […] Read more »
Hillary Clinton’s Continuing Youth Problem
Hillary Clinton and her campaign team will almost certainly use President Barack Obama’s winning battle plan from 2008 and 2012 as a starting point for mapping out their own strategy for her fall campaign against Donald Trump. Clinton’s hope would be to replicate Obama’s success with the same constituency of […] Read more »
Convention Polling Bounces Are Like Sugar Highs
… Convention bounces are sometimes described as sugar highs, providing a sudden jolt, often followed swiftly by a crash. Pollsters caution they shouldn’t be given too much weight because surveys taken around the conventions can be skewed. “It’s a very noisy time in polling, especially during the next six weeks,” […] Read more »
The Diverse Left and White Working-Class Right
The evocative sound of barriers falling was the signal note during the Democratic National Convention’s first two nights. … But there is also an undercurrent of concern that something old is being lost in this celebration of the new. The fear among some is that this polychromatic Democratic Party, open […] Read more »
And Then There Was Trump
How do you deal with an opponent immune to the truth, whose appeal is atavistic rather than rational? How do you pick off enough of his constituents and prevent him from making inroads into yours? In Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton and her Democratic allies face a candidate for whom there […] Read more »